SoleGRIND
Most sneakers lose money. That is the uncomfortable truth nobody in the resale space wants to talk about. SneakerPulse data shows the typical sneaker trades 17% below retail. Nearly 60% of all releases sit below their retail price on the secondary market. If you are buying shoes as an investment, the odds are stacked against you.
But then there are the outliers. The wild, absurd, almost offensive outliers.
Only 3.6% of sneakers sell for 2x retail or more. That is a tiny sliver of the market. And within that sliver, there is an even smaller tier of shoes commanding 4x, 5x, even 15x their retail price. These are not just profitable flips. They are the kind of markups that make you question whether the sneaker market operates on a different set of physics than everything else.
A UBS survey of high-net-worth collectors found that status comes less from price than from rarity, provenance, originality, and discovery. That tracks. The shoes on this list are not expensive because they use better materials. They are expensive because of who made them, how many exist, and what they represent in the culture. Provenance and scarcity drive the premium. Not leather quality.
Here are the 10 most overpriced sneakers on the resale market right now, ranked by the multiple of their retail price. Some of these markups are justified. Some are pure speculation. I will tell you which is which.
Number one. Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 Low in the Mocha colorway. Released in July 2019 for $130. Resale price right now sits around $1,958. That is a 15.1x multiple. Fifteen times retail. Let that sink in.
This shoe is the king of premiums and honestly, the markup makes more sense than most on this list. The Mocha was the first Travis Scott Air Jordan 1 Low to hit the market. It introduced the backwards Swoosh, the torn lace flaps, the hidden pockets in the collar. It was a design language that nobody had seen before on a Jordan 1. When it dropped, the reaction was instant. SNKRS sold out in seconds. And that was 2019, when the resale infrastructure was less developed than it is now. Fewer bots, fewer cook groups, but also fewer pairs in circulation.
The production run was small. Nike never disclosed exact numbers, but estimates put it somewhere around 50,000 pairs globally. For a shoe that has become the grail of the Travis Scott lineage, that is not enough. Every new Travis release brings more people into the ecosystem, and they all want the original. The Mocha is the one that started it all. That first-mover advantage keeps the price stable. I would call this a hold at current levels. The premium is justified by historical significance and sustained demand. It is not a bubble price if it has held for five years.
Is it worth $1,958 for a $130 shoe? Objectively, no. No shoe is worth 15 times its retail price. But markets do not care about objectivity. They care about demand and supply. And on those terms, the Mocha earns its premium.
Number two. Ben and Jerry’s x Nike SB Dunk Low “Chunky Dunky.” A $100 shoe that resells for $1,270. That is a 12.7x multiple. An ice cream collaboration turned into one of the most profitable sneakers of the last decade.
This one is fascinating because the partner is not a musician, not an athlete, not a fashion label. It is a Vermont ice cream company. The design pulls from Ben and Jerry’s pint packaging. Cow print overlays, puffy clouds on the heel, a drippy Swoosh that looks like melting ice cream, rainbow interior lining. It is absurd and joyful and completely unlike anything else in the Nike catalog.
The release in May 2020 was limited to select Nike SB accounts. Not a general release. Not on SNKRS in most regions. You had to know which skate shops got them, and you had to be fast. That scarcity, combined with the sheer novelty of the design, created immediate hype. The shoe became a meme before it even released. Social media went crazy for it.
At 12.7x retail, I think this one is partially bubble. The design is incredible, yes. But Ben and Jerry’s does not have the ongoing cultural relevance of a Travis Scott or a Kobe Bryant. The premium is driven by novelty and scarcity, not sustained demand from a growing fanbase. If Nike ever does a second Ben and Jerry’s collab, this price drops 30% overnight. I would be cautious buying at current levels.
Number three. Travis Scott x Fragment Design x Air Jordan 1 Low. $130 retail, approximately $1,495 resale. An 11.5x multiple. This is a triple collaboration, which is rare in itself. Travis Scott, Fragment Design, and Jordan Brand all on one shoe.
Fragment Design is Hiroshi Fujiwara’s studio. The man is considered the godfather of Japanese streetwear. When his lightning bolt logo appears on a shoe, it adds a premium tax. That is just how the market works. Combine that with Travis Scott’s backwards Swoosh and the Air Jordan 1 silhouette, and you have three separate fanbases competing for the same pairs.
The design is more subdued than the Mocha. White leather base, black overlays, Fragment’s lightning bolt on the heel, Travis’s Cactus Jack face logo hidden underneath. It is a cleaner look. Some collectors prefer it to the Mocha for that reason.
The triple-collab energy is what drives the 11.5x multiple. You are not just buying a Travis Scott shoe. You are buying a piece of streetwear history that connects American hip-hop, Japanese design culture, and basketball heritage. That is a compelling story for collectors. I think this premium is more sustainable than the Chunky Dunky. Fragment’s archive status does not fade.
Number four. Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 Low “Reverse Mocha.” $130 retail, around $1,261 resale. A 9.7x multiple. This is the Mocha colorway flipped. Brown base where there was black, black where there was brown. Same backwards Swoosh, same energy.
The Reverse Mocha launched in July 2022, three years after the original. By that point, Travis Scott’s sneaker collabs had become events. The demand was massive. But the supply was also larger than the original Mocha. Nike produced more pairs. The resale price reflects that. At 9.7x versus the Mocha’s 15.1x, the gap tells you exactly how much first-mover advantage is worth in this market.
Is the Reverse Mocha a buy at $1,261? I lean toward yes, with a caveat. The price has been relatively stable for over two years. It is not in a speculative run-up. The caveat is that Travis Scott releases new shoes constantly, and each one dilutes the pool of collectors’ attention and budgets. The Reverse Mocha will hold value as long as it remains the second-most-desirable TS AJ1 Low. If a new colorway takes that spot, expect a 15 to 20% pullback.
Number five. Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 Low “Black Phantom.” $130 retail, approximately $832 resale. A 6.4x multiple. This is the all-black version. Tonal black suede upper, black leather overlays, black Swoosh. The only contrast comes from white stitching and the red Cactus Jack tag.
At 6.4x, this is the most affordable Travis Scott AJ1 Low on the list. And honestly, it might be the best value play. The all-black aesthetic has broader appeal than the Mocha or Reverse Mocha. It goes with everything. It is not a loud shoe. You can wear it to a restaurant without anyone looking twice, unless they know what they are looking at.
The lower multiple also suggests the market is pricing it more reasonably. It is still a 6.4x markup, which is insane by any normal standard. But within the Travis Scott ecosystem, this is the entry point. If you want a TS AJ1 Low without paying 10x or 15x, this is where you land. I think the Black Phantom has the most upside potential on this list because it is undervalued relative to its siblings.
Number six. Travis Scott x Air Jordan 1 Low “Olive” in women’s sizing. $130 retail, around $754 resale. A 5.8x multiple. This was Travis’s first women’s-exclusive AJ1 Low collaboration. Black and olive green upper, white midsole, the backwards Swoosh in olive.
The women’s-exclusive angle is important. The market for women’s sneakers has grown significantly, but the supply of premium collaborations in women’s sizing is still limited. Most Travis Scott releases are men’s sizing. The Olive was a statement that women’s sneaker culture deserves the same caliber of collaboration.
At 5.8x, the premium is lower than the men’s TS pairs. Part of that is the women’s sizing factor. The resale market for women’s sneakers is smaller, and size conversion adds friction for buyers. But that also means there is less competition when you want to buy. If women’s sneaker collecting continues to grow, the Olive could appreciate. It is a bet on a demographic trend, not just a shoe.
Number seven. Nike Air Force 1 Low Lil Yachty “Concrete Boys Lucky Green.” $130 retail, $656 resale. A 5.0x multiple. Released in May 2025, this is one of the newer shoes on the list.
Lil Yachty is not Travis Scott. His sneaker collaborations do not carry the same cultural weight. But the Concrete Boys brand has a dedicated following, and the AF1 silhouette has serious pedigree. The Lucky Green colorway is loud. Green and gold, a clear nod to Yachty’s Atlanta roots and his Concrete Boys collective.
A 5x multiple on a shoe that is less than a year old is impressive. But it also concerns me. New shoes with high multiples are the most likely to depreciate. The hype is still fresh. Everyone who wanted a pair has been talking about it for months. Once the initial demand wave passes, prices often soften. I would wait six months before buying this one. If it holds above $500, then the premium is real. If it drops to $350, you just saved yourself $300.
Number eight. Nike SB Dunk Low Pro QS Costco Kirkland Signature. $135 retail, $594 resale. A 4.4x multiple. Released in January 2026. Yes, this is a Costco collaboration. The warehouse club that sells $1.50 hot dogs and bulk toilet paper made a sneaker with Nike SB.
This shoe is gray. Gray sweater material on the upper, inspired by Kirkland’s signature fleece hoodies. The Kirkland logo on the lateral side. “Skateboarding” written in the Signature cursive font on the tongue. And the best detail of all, the insole has a picture of a Costco hot dog with the $1.50 price tag. That is attention to detail.
The premium here is driven by novelty and the absurdity of the collaboration. Costco is not a sneaker brand. The fact that this shoe exists at all is the story. It is a conversation piece. But conversation pieces do not always hold value. The Kirkland Dunk is still early in its resale lifecycle. At 4.4x, I think it is fairly priced for now. The risk is that the joke wears off. The opportunity is that Nike SB Dunks have a track record of appreciating once the initial hype settles and the supply dries up.
Number nine. Nike Kobe 6 Protro Jalen Brunson “Statue of Liberty.” $200 retail, $800 resale. A 4.0x multiple. Released in December 2025.
This shoe is gorgeous. Hyper Turquoise upper, Metallic Copper on the heel counter and Kobe shield logo. The colorway represents the Statue of Liberty, and it is a New York shoe through and through. Jalen Brunson is the Knicks’ franchise player. He has been wearing Kobe models on court for years, and this PE finally got a public release.
The Kobe line has a unique premium in the resale market. Kobe Bryant’s legacy gives every release an emotional weight that no other athlete’s signature line carries. The Protro program, which retroes Kobe’s models with updated technology, has been consistently strong. The Statue of Liberty adds the New York factor, which is the largest sneaker market in the country.
At 4x retail, I think this is a strong buy. Kobe releases have shown sustained appreciation. The Statue of Liberty is a PE for a current Knicks star, which means the story behind the shoe keeps it relevant. Brunson is still playing. Every time he wears them on court, the price gets a bump. This is one of the few shoes on this list where I would buy at current levels without hesitation.
Number ten. Vans Old Skool 36 LX Souvenir in Warm Brown. $125 retail, $493.50 resale. A 3.9x multiple. Released in July 2025.
This is the odd one out on the list. No Nike. No Jordan. No musician or athlete collaboration. Just Vans, doing what Vans does best. The Souvenir pack takes the Old Skool silhouette and elevates it with premium materials. Warm Brown colorway, refined construction, the kind of shoe that looks better the more you wear it.
The 3.9x multiple is the lowest on this list, but it is still almost 4 times retail. For a Vans shoe. That tells you something about the premium sneaker market right now. The demand for limited, well-made product extends beyond the usual Nike and Jordan suspects. Vans Vault, the LX line, has been quietly building a collector base.
I like this shoe as a wear, not as an investment. The premium is modest enough that you are not taking on massive risk. But the upside is also limited. Vans does not have the same cultural moment as Travis Scott or Kobe Bryant. If you want to wear it, buy it. If you are looking for price appreciation, there are better options higher on this list.
Here is the takeaway. Eight of the ten shoes on this list are Travis Scott Air Jordan 1 Lows. One collaboration dominates the premium sneaker market in a way that is almost unprecedented. That concentration risk is worth thinking about. If Travis Scott’s cultural relevance fades, or if Jordan Brand floods the market with new TS releases, the entire premium tier could compress. The Ben and Jerry’s Dunk, the Costco Kirkland SB, the Kobe PE, and the Vans LX are the only shoes that are not riding the Travis Scott wave.
The UBS survey said it. Status comes from rarity, provenance, originality, and discovery. The Mocha has provenance as the first TS AJ1 Low. The Fragment has originality as a triple collaboration. The Chunky Dunky has discovery, the novelty of finding an ice cream brand on a skate shoe. The Kobe has provenance through Bryant’s legacy and Brunson’s present. Each premium has a reason behind it.
But remember the math. 3.6% of sneakers hit 2x retail. The typical pair trades 17% below. These ten shoes are the 0.1% exception, not the rule. If you are buying sneakers as an investment, understand that you are chasing a tiny minority of releases. Most shoes will not make you money. These ones do, for now. Whether they continue to is the question only the market can answer.
